Capitalize on Bitcoin ETF inflows driving structural demand, with 65% allocation to spot ETFs and 25% to custody providers. Targets 150-250% returns by 2025 halving cycle amid corporate adoption creating price floors.
BlackRock’s $IBIT and competing Bitcoin ETFs now absorb 85% of daily mined BTC, creating unprecedented institutional demand. With corporate treasuries locking up 1.1% of supply and historical parallels to gold’s ETF-driven rallies, this strategy leverages regulated vehicles while hedging regulatory risks through multi-issuer diversification.
Context
Since January 2024 ETF approvals, $1.9B/week inflows now exceed 2021 bull market velocity. MicroStrategy and 27 public companies hold 205,000 BTC – equivalent to 13 months’ mining output at current rates.
Strategy Explanation
- 65% core ETF allocation emphasizes BlackRock (40%) and Fidelity (30%) for liquidity
- 25% satellite positions in custody infrastructure (Coinbase, BitGo)
- 10% physical BTC acts as regulatory hedge
- Quarterly rebalancing when ETF premiums exceed ±1.5%
Token Targets
Prioritize ETFs with >$1B AUM ($IBIT, $FBTC) and regulated custodians. Avoid futures-based products due to contango risks.
Expected Returns & Risks
- Upside: 150-250% by 2025 if ETF flows maintain current pace
- Risks: SEC rule changes (25% probability), corporate profit-taking at $75k
- Hedges: CME futures shorts offset 30% exposure
Exit Signals
Reduce exposure if: 1) 3+ weeks of ETF outflows 2) Corporate holdings <0.8% supply 3) CME basis negative >30 days
