Bitcoin’s rally to $97,900 faces skepticism as spot ETF demand contrasts with stagnant futures premiums and macroeconomic risks, testing its ‘digital gold’ narrative.
The cryptocurrency surged to $97,900 on July 18 before retreating 9%, as $642M ETF inflows this week (CoinGlass) collided with flatlining 8% annualized futures premiums (Laevitas.ch) and Federal Reserve rate hike signals.
ETF Demand Meets Derivatives Skepticism
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.2B net inflows in July through 19th (CoinGlass), including $217M into BlackRock’s IBIT on July 17. However, CME futures open interest remained stagnant at $9.8B (Skew), with annualized premiums halving from June’s 15% to current 8% levels (Laevitas.ch).
Gold Correlation vs Tech Stock Ties
While gold gained 20% YTD through central bank purchases, Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with Nasdaq reached 0.62 (TradingView). Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer noted in July 15 blog: ‘BTC increasingly behaves like tech stocks during risk-off periods, undermining its inflation hedge narrative.’
Options Bullishness Faces Macro Headwinds
Deribit’s 25% delta skew favoring calls hit +7.5 on July 19 (most bullish since April), despite implied volatility dropping 25% post-surge (Amberdata). This optimism faces pressure from Fed’s Michelle Bowman advocating rate hikes (July 18) and new U.S. China EV tariffs (July 16).
Historical Precedents and Market Psychology
The current divergence mirrors June 2021 when BTC reached $64,895 despite futures backwardation. Similar to 2017’s parabolic rally, current negative funding rates (-0.02% on Binance) suggest potential for short squeezes. However, 2022’s 65% crash following Fed tightening remains fresh in institutional memory.
Gold’s current rally differs fundamentally – central banks purchased 1,081 tonnes in 2022 (World Gold Council) versus BTC’s retail-driven ETF flows. The 2010s mobile payment revolution in China demonstrates how infrastructure adoption (Alipay/WeChat Pay) precedes speculative phases, a pattern now testing Bitcoin’s maturity.
